Swarms of low-cost drones powered by AI — perhaps hundreds of them at the same time — could soon pose an existential threat to America's hulking war machinery.
Advanced militaries can largely fend off individual drones. But swarms of them deployed on a single target have the potential to reshape the global balance of power.
Expensive aircraft carriers or stealth bombers, which require massive time commitments to develop and build, will become vulnerable to drones that almost every military and armed group can access.
The Shahed-model drone that killed three U.S. service members at a remote base in Jordan on Jan. 28 cost around $20,000. It was part of a family of drones built by Shahed Aviation Industries Research Center, an Iranian company run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
For the cost of one aircraft carrier ($13 billion) an military could purchase 650,000 Shahed drones.
It would only take a few of those drones finding their target to cripple and perhaps sink the Ford. Fortunately, the Ford and other U.S. warships possess ample missile defense systems that make it highly improbable that a few, or even a few dozen, Shahed drones could land direct hits. But rapid developments in AI are changing that.
Much like the nuclear arms race of the last century, the AI arms race will define this current one. Whoever wins will possess a profound military advantage. Make no mistake, if placed in authoritarian hands, AI dominance will become a tool of conquest, just as Alexander expanded his empire with the new weapons and tactics of his age. The ancient historian Plutarch reminds us how that campaign ended: “When Alexander saw the breadth of his domain, he wept, for there were no more worlds to conquer.”
@ISIDEWITH3mos3MO
Considering the historical consequences of military advancements, how does the possibility of AI dominance in warfare affect your feelings about the future?
@9KWN9WC3mos3MO
I think the AI will teach itself how to take over the world.
@Patriot-#1776Constitution3mos3MO
AI doesn't even know it exists, and won't for a long, long time
It'll come down to killing people either way, it doesn't matter what you use the end goal is to kill enough of the poor bastards of another country to make them surrender or run out of people to disagree with you.
It might help us but also has drawbacks
@ISIDEWITH3mos3MO
How do you feel about the idea that cheaper drones could neutralize the power of expensive military equipment like aircraft carriers?
@9KWX5GFIndependent3mos3MO
I feel like we made the military equipment for a reason and they should go to waste.
I feel about the idea of that cheaper drones should be good so they don't have to pay alot of their money so they have money for thier self.
@ISIDEWITH3mos3MO
How does the thought of a new AI arms race affecting global security and stability resonate with your beliefs about international conflict?
@9KWMDPLRepublican3mos3MO
If used correctly they could be very helpful tools but if put in the wrong hands they can start more conflicts.
@9KWLFKH3mos3MO
AI is frightening with how fast it grows, and people should be worried about it.
@ISIDEWITH3mos3MO
What personal concerns do you have about the potential for drone swarms to shift power to less traditionally powerful militaries or non-state actors?
My last personal concerns about the powerful of in miliatiares is non actors should be treated like a U.S cizitens
@9KWLFQP3mos3MO
I think that opens up a whole new avenue back then you needed armies to lead and conquer and protect now a small organization or territory can achieve the same feat or rival the firepower to that of the United States with suppliers and a few illegal transactions and moves.
@SwanAndyLibertarian3mos3MO
Has the military consider giant flyswatters?
@D1rectTunaGreen3mos3MO
Haven't you seen "Independance Day"? Everyone knows you defeat swarms with viruses.
@RightTrufflePatriot3mos3MO
I have said for years now that all investment in Ford class carriers is wasted money, and that was based just on the existence of "carrier-killer" missiles (China will gladly send hundreds of carrier-killers against a US boat in order to sink a $10 billion asset). The advent of the drone-era over the course of the Ukraine War just reaffirms that stance. Instead, the US is cutting its submarine budget--the one remaining area where we have considerable advantages over our rivals.
The situation is almost exactly analogous to the 1930s when the Navy was controlled by admirals who came… Read more
@MinorityWhipSyrupVeteran3mos3MO
Excellent points!
I envision a swarm of cheap drones crashing on the deck and sides of our expensive $10 billion aircraft carrier, either sinking it or taking it temporarily out of commission.
This reminds me of the Japanese kamikaze pilots crashing onto aircraft carriers in WW2 - only now its smaller drones. Seems our military is stuck in WW2 thinking and planning while the rest of the world moves on.
@PopulistCoconutDemocrat3mos3MO
The kamikaze attacks were only effective at first. The US Navy adjusted tactics to oppose them. Additionally, new defensive tech, such as proximity fuses on AA guns, eventually shut them down. Today's proximity fuse is directed radiation beams. Each shot is pinpoint, and they cost far less than the drones they take out.
@AnteaterJonnyUnity3mos3MO
The aircraft carrier is fast becoming the battleship. of the 21st century. Immensely powerful yet fatally vulnerable to aerial attack. Our money should be on submarines.
@HumanR1ghtsDeerDemocrat3mos3MO
Thankfully I think it is on submarines already. It's just one of the closest guarded areas of our military so we don't hear a lot about it. That mystery is one of their biggest advantages.
@AnteaterJonnyUnity3mos3MO
Biden just cut the budget to produce only 1 sub per year...so, no, we are NOT investing in them
@RaisinsSamanthaMountain3mos3MO
All drones can be jammed. How does the drone know where to go? If it communicates with any intelligent source (AI, human) then how is that communication accomplished? Radio waves, GPS, wifi, satellite -- all perfectly jammable.
@TenaciousCodDemocrat3mos3MO
But what if they self-contain directions to target w/o further input by radio?
@RaisinsSamanthaMountain3mos3MO
Like with a stationary target? Any drone must still know how far it traveled and in what direction it traveled. Otherwise a gust of wind blows it off course and it has no means by which to correct itself (without communicating to a central source like GPS, which, of course, is run by the U.S. Dept. of Defense).
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